The global Economic Recession from a common man’s view and its implications to India

i am in the midst of writing this article....
The global Economic Recession from a common man’s view

The world economy is showing some signs of growth but we need to wait to confirm if the worst is over.
India is in the midst of the global economic slowdown, unable to decide if it needs path breaking reform agenda to ensure it leapfrogs all others or be cautious and tread through this time period and be ready when the world is about to get back into the growth story that it had been in early 2008. For almost a year, people from different spheres of life were reluctant to accept that the world is in the grip of a real slowdown and the dreaded word recession was only taken out by the bold. But the entire world is in recession infact a real one for many decades – the first real one that I am going through.
According to some estimates around 75% of the economies are currently going through a recessionary phase or negative growth. Earlier warnings like the 2000 dot com bust or even the early 2003 economic crisis was not as synchronous as we had a situation where almost half of the world economy was showing signs of recovery. Hence it balanced out itself. But here a vast majority of the world is contracting and hence we do not see any major signs of growth. The world also is more and more like a level playing field and the boundaries are all peripheral and this has ensured the contraction to spread far and wide to all interrelated geographies unlike the earlier crisis when one region had a bad contraction but some other regions were not that deeply impacted.

Another genuine concern is over the ability of governments to raise the vast amounts of debt they need to pay for economic stimulus packages and bank bail-outs. Rough estimates suggest that globally around $ 3 trillion of debt is to be raised from government bonds. Although this does suggest that there is some bit of consumption growth but technically it is recession which is nothing but declining or negative private growth/ consumption being compensated by artificial government demand. The real fear is once the recessionary phase is over, for how long the tax payer’s will have to bear the additional pressure of paying off these government debt’s raised from the market. It is estimated that around $ 4 billion of toxic assets are to written off by the various financial institutions and governments by the time recession is declared officially over.
Number of hungry people in the world has touched 1 billion, a historic high due largely to the global economic crisis and high food prices. According to, the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) report, compared with last year, there are 100 million more people who are hungry, meaning they receive fewer than 1800 calories per day. Almost all the worlds undernourished live in developing countries, where food prices have fallen more slowly than in the richer nations. This huge increase in the have-nots category has an indirect affect on global peace. All this despite strong 2009 cereal production but still the average prices at the end of last year were still 24% higher in real terms than in 2006.
Developing countries are expected to grow by only 1.2 per cent this year, after seeing a 8.1 per cent growth in 2007 and 5.9 per cent growth in 2008, according to a study titled 'Global Development Finance 2009: Charting a Global Recovery', by the World Bank. Asia and the Pacific, the world’s most populous region, have the largest number of hungry people at 642 million. Sub Saharan Africa with the highest hunger rate, with 265 million undernourished representing 32% of the regions population.
Some other key indicators to the gloomy economic scenario are - The global automobile industry sold 54 million vehicles last year in comparison to 68 million in 2007. According to Liases Foras, a real estate research firm, the developers' sales to inventory ratio in India has moved up to 1:9.5 (a unit of sales for every 9.5 units of inventory) from 1:2 in 2005.



Cause for Optimism

According to the latest estimates from studies, the German and the Japanese economy are showing signs of growing business positivism. The business in general in these two of the largest economies of the world is more confident of a demand pick up.
The number of US workers filing new claims for jobless benefits is still rising but the number of people staying on the benefit rolls after collecting an initial week of aid has fallen for the first time since January 2009.

The Indian economy is also not oblivious to the growth signs around the world, as the IIP has shown positive growth. The April- March 2009 figures for consumer durables categories have shown considerable growth. According to Org report, the high priced LCD TV segment has grown by 86%, followed by Plasma TV at 54%; flat TVs grew by 1%. Colour TVs account for over half the consumer durable market.
The Indian banking industry data also shows a general improvement in credit off take (lending). It is positive news that the demand for loans is improving especially from the fertilizer and infrastructure sectors.
Indian Infrastructure needs roughly $ 500 to 750 billion investments (depending on the general valuations of different institutions like planning commission estimates and other private institutions) and according to me the key to unlock our economic crisis. If the government has a single minded disciplined approach at solving our Infrastructure mess then it will definitely revive the economy and play a big part in ensuring the revival of the global economic crisis. We just need to have some ambitious targets like doubling our four lane highways to six lanes; a great dose of investment and private participation is high speed railway infrastructure, airport modernization (all the state capital’s airports need to be modernized), a separate express line railway infrastructure for carrying freight, linking and bypassing city roads with national highways, smart interlinking of state highways with national highways, a smarter policy in building ports (the existing method of having smaller ports may be every 30 or 50 kilometers is a very archaic thought process and according to a research study has lead to over 50 % of our beaches getting vanished as these small ports turns them into rocks), a major thrust on power with even greater emphasis of transmission and especially distribution – in power distribution, we need to get away with this rural and urban conflict and ensure the distribution benefits both, another concern is to make sufficient study before sanctioning a power/irrigation project and taking all the stakeholders views into consideration, a renewed thrust into renewable energy especially solar and wind power generation (I think we have a lot of untapped potential here).

Conclusion

When you look at the numbers it clearly is an improvement; let us say Work in Progress.

Immediate things the city of Hyderabad needs to address

I am still not finished with this list yet but it is evolving.

52 things to improve Hyderabad City and make it a great city…

1. Autos should have proper maintenance
2. Having an Auto hotline/customer care – available on call
3. Autos need to be regulated and obliged to travel anywhere within the city
4. Autos are the cities USP; should be utilized properly
5. Dedicated auto bays spread equally across the city.
6. Autos need to be equipped with GPS and the govt. is expected to maintain biometric records of each driver, including his accident records. A copy of this will be maintained with the transport department to ensure that ‘‘bad drivers’’ are blacklisted.
7. Waste management
8. People
9. Roads being cut and not mended
10. Unplanned road cutting
11. Lack of effective coordination among various govt. departments.
12. Pavements
13. APSRTC buses – proper connectivity should be ensured. For example – Bus stops should be made modern and provided with essential amenities. Bus stops should have information tickers in Hindi/Telugu/English showing the buses coming from and destination details for the next 30 minutes or so.
14. APSRTC bus drivers need to be educated more. They should not stop in the middle of the roads and cause disturbance to the traffic flow.
15. Buildings encroaching and not following rules
16. Ensuring that buildings have proper parking and if not, then not getting permission
17. Jaywalkers
18. Not using foot over bridges
19. People not following traffic rules/Jumping traffic signals
20. Spitting
21. Pissing at public places
22. Public Toilets
23. Public honking of vehicles
24. Banners
25. Writings on the walls
26. Cables – TV cables
27. Underground cabling or underground wiring
28. Keeping Hussain Sagar clean
29. Lakes (Hussainsagar and other lakes in Hyderabad) – Maintenance/upkeep
30. Parking at public places (roads/alleys/shops etc.)
31. Cameras at public places
32. Citizen solution system which is online and up to date
33. Children educated on the basic civic amenities and etiquettes.
34. Beggar rehabilitation schemes
35. Rain water harvesting
36. Educating people of saving electricity and preserving the natural resources
37. Mending of broken pipelines in public places especially
38. Garbage collection
39. Garbage dumped by citizens, marriage halls
40. Garbage utilization & management
41. The civic authorities should ensure that the garbage is properly disposed off like function/marriage halls need to have the responsibility to dump/park their garbage at a proper place and it should not be littered or dumped at the nearest open space.
42. Waste collection should also be allowed in the night to morning or after 10 am till 4 pm.
43. Water Tanker – They are a menace, no road safety, wastage of water
44. Water tanker should only be allowed after 9 or 10 pm till morning 7 am as they are a nuisance and need regulation.
45. Efficient alerts on road diversions for any general processions, VIP travel/security so that the common public is not troubled.
46. Malls/Building need adequate parking, fire systems, entry & exits and finally good security systems in place.
47. Alert mechanism in electronic signboards (It can be transportation or areas having lesser vehicle flow etc.)
48. Improper maintenance of parks/gardens and other public places of importance
49. The buses (APSRTC) need to fund by business with modern low-floor buses, some of them air-conditioned and all equipped with GPS and automated ticketing systems. The fleet will be steered by staff trained in to be courteous. APSRTC is also expected to maintain biometric records of each driver, including his accident records. A copy of this will be maintained with the transport department to ensure that ‘‘bad drivers’’ are blacklisted.
50. A proper police helpline should be available in the city for any emergencies. This helpline should have well defined SLA’s to react within the shortest possible interval and reach the disturbed area.
51. One unified helpline for all essential needs of the city is a good idea. Like City transportation (MMTS or city buses)/water/electricity/law and order (traffic/police etc)/building or construction related will be a good gesture.
52. Kiosks or Computerised Information centers helping commuters as to when the next bus in which direction is to come when.

death of an arsenal fan

I am really sad to read the death of an arsenal fan post the champions league semi final.Football should be seen as a sport and not taken beyond a point. But it was truly disappointing semi final encounter for alla rsenal fans. Such a lot was expected and it was a complete non starter for the team. I am convinced the young gunners are distraught and heartbroken. I think we need some balance and convinced that we need a good balance between experience and youngsters. I hear that Xabi Alonso is available and would be desperate to make him an arsenal player. He will be the perfect foil for our midfield of fabregas, arshavin, rosicky. I also think we need one solid, experience, no nonsense defender....somebody like vidic and hangeland of fulham is a good choice.

i think one, two or three buys should be ok for the next season. we also need some trainign on how we go about mentally during the big games and be absolutley dead defensive (as tight as it can get) to defend any lead.....


hoping for a new season of titles.

eternal arsenal fan from india

my article in kenexa Evolve and Kenexa Connections

I got my article published in kenexa Evolve and Kenexa Connections. Had submitted the article some 8 months back. The article topic is - How networking helps in job hunting and the new trends in this. It really feels great as the Evovle magazine goes to some 1400 clients of ours globally and has 3 editions in US/UK and Canada. really thrilled.

my visit to vizag and lessons for Hyderabad...

on 5th April, paid an official visit to Vizag (forsome office work).....i ike the city quite a bit...it is just that i cannot relocate myself their ..due to very personal reasons....

1. Vizag has some semblance of planning....grossly lacking in Hyderabad
2. they (vizag city administration - VUDA) have laboured quite a bit to beautify the city especially the beach road and ensure it gets some traction as far as being tourist destination.
3. Many of the public lighting system does not have overhead cabling or wiring and it is underground...It does look neat. Hyderabad it ispathetic.
4. The roads are well laid out and it is planned for future.
5. The flats/houses are not made in a clumsy manner. It is well laid out; even flats. It looks good. Unfortunatley in big metros flats/houses are made in such a manner that looks very complex/disorganised.
6. This gives a soothing experience to the eye. it is like easy going feeling. the body is relaxed.

These are some of my personal thoughts but also heard some flip side also to Vizag like the rentals have shot up (even during these times), the real estate costs have shot up, the cost living is also going northwards etc.

So judge yourselves; maybe a good place to be in once a while.

Indian elections - 15 times 28

This elections that we are going to have is very very unique...maybe our polity is becoming quite fragmented in the sense that we have more regional parties with far greater influence coming to the scene. Also their is no big emotive national issue touching one and all. That's why i say it is 15X28 as it is the 15th lok sabha with 28 different states electing for the national assembly. Quite surprisingly even terrorism, unemployment/recession impacts, power shortage, basic infrastructure are not national issues instead we have local issues be it the Jagdish Tytler case for Sikhs, tamil cause in Tamil Naidu, separate statehood in Andhra/Vidharbha or even anti incumbency at the local level. hence it is also the most difficult elections to predict the end score. No wonder Dr. prannoy Roy of NDTV is promising a Skoda Superb car as a prize for guessing the next PM.
But let us come to some hard facts as a result of this elections -
We are going to have even deeper fractured mandate putting the country to greater chaos and ensuring more number of fringe players thinking that they have greater role as national power brokers. Will this sugur good for our country especially in the backdrop of India being in the threshhold of development/growth and giving the world a direction?

1. We need some firm/punitive actions as far as national borders/integrity of our country is concerned considering the percieved threat of taliban from across the border (remember taliban is not a military regime to simple fight with instead it is a thought process and hence need far firmer handling no matter who).
2. We need reforms and some proactive ones. Do we have the guts to do it.
3. we need cleaning of the judicial system - meaning ensuring all cases are settled fast and have as minimal backlog.
4. We need firmness and speed in our infrastructure build up...no matter how big our potential is if we do not spread world class infrastructure nothing much is going to change.

These to me are some things expected from the new lok sabha and if we deliver then i am a lucky chap to go through this renaissance in our country.

jai hind

5 years in kenexa

couple of days back i accomplished something i thought is almost impossible for me to achieve i.e - finish 5 years in a company. So officially i am eligible for my gratuity dues. I must admit it was a proud moment. I will like to remember my past 5 years as being one of the most important in my life as i got married/settled and did succeed fair bit. Although do not know what holds for me in future but these past 5 years have been a great learning curve. in kenexa was given a fair amount of challenging assignments in sales support/market research and did a good job of it.

so happy 5 years anniversary in a company, ajit.

keep it up.

My laptop and ipod

Finally i accomplished my long cherished dream of buying a laptop and an ipod. really excited. i bought a leneovo laptop with the config - 2 GB/250 GB and all other standard features; black colour. ipod is the new generation ipod nano chromatic (silver colour)...it is really cool....Now it will be fun when i travel next month to kerala.

the truth about Pakistan...it is serious threat for us Indians...

I will like to thank the author (Colonel Anil Athale (retd))
of this piece of knowledge that I have taken ...it is a wonderfull article giving us a good understandign the existing Political/Legal/Economic/Social demorgraphics prevalent in Pakistan...A wonderfull read indeed....

The recent surrender by the Pakistani State to the Taliban in the Swat valley may well turn out to be a watershed in the history of the Indian subcontinent. In terms of long-term impact, this may even overshadow the recent Mumbai massacres. All signs point to the 'Talibanisation' of Pakistan. Here are several pointers:
I A Rehman writing in the Dawn newspaper on February 12 says 'the Pakistani armed forces were indoctrinated in General Zia-ul Haq's rule to reserve senior posts for genuine Islamists. The Pakistan army may have the capacity to kill hordes of people, but it will not -- and cannot -- do that.' The army and the State may well disintegrate if it does.
General Ashfaq Kayani, son of a former soldier, is the first non-elite chief of the Pakistani army. Given his socio-economic background, he is more likely to be part of the 'natural' constituency of the Taliban.
We have the example of Iran -- on February 11, 1979, when the mass upsurge to impose 'Islamic rule' reached its zenith, the Iranian army declared its 'neutrality' in the ongoing conflict. This sealed the fate of the Shah of Iran. A similar happening in Pakistan is very likely.
Slumdog Jihadis: The Dawn on December 18, 2008, quoted the Pakistan Planning Commission's Deputy Chairman Sardar Asef Ahmad Ali that poverty had skyrocketed to above 40 per cent in the country, leaving millions helpless. It is these poor/unemployed/uneducated people that are cannon fodder for the jihadis. The interrogation of the lone surviving Mumbai terrorist Ajmal Kasab's story fits the bill. There are such 48 million Ajmals waiting in Pakistan to be primed against India.
As a student of military history, I found it extraordinary that Indians were always blissfully unaware of developments in their neighbourhood. No ruler of Delhi ever woke up when the enemy crossed the Khyber Pass. The first stirrings of action were usually when the enemy was at the gates, at Panipat, just a day's march from Delhi.
Indians have been made to totally forget the holocaust that they faced in past; the name Hindukush itself means 'Hindu killer', a reminder of the days when thousands of Indians died on the mountain slopes while being taken to Central Asia as slaves.(the Encyclopaedia Britannica quoting a 12th century traveller Ibn Batua).
Nearer our times, the 1981 UN declaration of Universal Human Rights writes; 'Among the genocides of human history, the highest number of people killed in the small span of time is in Bangladesh in 1971. An average of 6,000 to 12 000 people were killed every single day. This is the highest daily average in history.' The lower estimate shows that 15 lakh were killed, a majority of them Hindus. A commission of inquiry appointed by the Pakistan government, the Hamidoor Rehman Commission, has recorded testimonies of Pakistani army officers who have quoted General Amir Abdullah Khan Niazi asking the question 'How many Hindus have you killed today?' as a matter of routine. We have forgotten this recent episode as well.
Demography is destiny
Pakistan has a very high rate of population growth. Although it has declined from three percent at the time of the census in 1981 to the present 1.9 per cent it is still the highest among populous countries of more than 50 million, except Nigeria. The more reliable indicator of population growth is the total fertility rate -- the number of children born to a woman in her reproductive span. Pakistan's TFR is four. A TFR of 2.1 is considered replacement level which leads to a stable population.
In Pakistan, the under-15 population is 37 per cent of the total. Given the poor education, health and skills of this youth, they are fodder for jihad and little else. With the mullahs constantly drumming that all of Pakistan's ills are due to the evil Hindu India/Zionist Israel/Christian America troika, Pakistan's biggest export for a long time is likely to be terror.
If by some miracle, Pakistan is to implement population control tomorrow, it will take two to three decades for it to take effect. Even if the re-brainwashing was to begin now, again it is bound to take time. The sad fact is that neither of these things is happening either tomorrow or any time soon.
Impact of the economic meltdown
For decades over 25 percent of the Pakistani labour force was employed in the oil-rich Middle East. With the economic downturn and lower oil prices, the boom is over. The Dubai shopping festival was a flop this year. The returning labour force will only add to the unemployment in the country.
In any case, Pakistan has very little industry and its agriculture is confined to Punjab and parts of Sindh. Most of the country's landmass is arid and unfit for agriculture. Rural poverty will gallop in the near future.
Ripe for implosion
The politics of extremism as represented by the Taliban, the economic meltdown and demographic pressure all point to a major implosion in Pakistan. Are we ready for the fallout?
Despite this threat staring in our face there is a palpable lack of national unity -- another Indian trait. In the last four years, we have let our defence apparatus go to seed, so much so that we have lost the conventional edge over Pakistan.
Given this situation the only option for India is to 'isolate and contain' Pakistan. That still leaves the million dollar question about Pakistan's nuclear weapons. Here one hopes that all those joint exercise with special forces of the US, UK, Israel, China and Russia were in preparation for this very contingency.
If not, then God save the world!

Layoff Tracker (Total employees laid off in recession)

This is such a wonderfull thing that Klaus Kneale has complied. He has complied the Number of layoffs since Nov. 1, 2008, at America's 500 largest public companies (Total announced layoffs at America’s 500 largest public companies as measured by a composite ranking of sales, profits, assets and market value since Nov. 1 2008. Includes layoffs at subsidiaries, joint ventures, and majority owned companies). As of Feb 18th 2009 the total lay off count inn America stands at - 471224.